Mobile is dead!
Years ago – I was responsible for Nokia’s WAP browser development. So I claim I’ve got some street credibility here, eh? So what do you think of this thread of thoughts?
Mobile Internet is dead
Back in the good old WAP-days we had a plan. We thought that we’ll ship millions of phones and put a WAP browser in them. Then, everybody will write WML content and that’ll create a new internet cloud called Mobile Internet ™ (TM looks good here!!).
That never happened. Internet grew richer and sexier and all we had was this tiny screen to WML decs and cards. And we thought that’ll change the internet and create the mobile internet. It didn’t.
It amazes me that I still see signs of this thinking. Web pages and services are tailored to small screens and people expect that to create the mobile internet. It won’t. There is only one internet, and if your device cannot access it, you’re out of luck. There is only one internet.
Mobile Software is (soon) dead
Back in the good old days we created mobile software from scratch. We created home grown operating systems for mobile phones, mobile stacks and UI frameworks, primitive light weight file systems, and so on. Back then, CPUs were lazy and flash was poor. Thus, we built dedicated software for mobile devices – and we called it Mobile Software ™.
Today, we run Linux, X, Gnome, Flash, and friends on Nokia N800. Our big idea form the start was to run --as closely as possible-- a desktop Linux stack. Others will start to do the same and I predict that mobile software will thus eventually die. All we need is software that runs everywhere.
Next
What’s next to die? Mobile phones? Now, this may be too much! We are making more mobile phones than anybody ever imagined! But, we are also making multimedia computers ... so you never know ;-)
Mobile Internet is dead
Back in the good old WAP-days we had a plan. We thought that we’ll ship millions of phones and put a WAP browser in them. Then, everybody will write WML content and that’ll create a new internet cloud called Mobile Internet ™ (TM looks good here!!).
That never happened. Internet grew richer and sexier and all we had was this tiny screen to WML decs and cards. And we thought that’ll change the internet and create the mobile internet. It didn’t.It amazes me that I still see signs of this thinking. Web pages and services are tailored to small screens and people expect that to create the mobile internet. It won’t. There is only one internet, and if your device cannot access it, you’re out of luck. There is only one internet.
Mobile Software is (soon) dead
Back in the good old days we created mobile software from scratch. We created home grown operating systems for mobile phones, mobile stacks and UI frameworks, primitive light weight file systems, and so on. Back then, CPUs were lazy and flash was poor. Thus, we built dedicated software for mobile devices – and we called it Mobile Software ™.
Today, we run Linux, X, Gnome, Flash, and friends on Nokia N800. Our big idea form the start was to run --as closely as possible-- a desktop Linux stack. Others will start to do the same and I predict that mobile software will thus eventually die. All we need is software that runs everywhere.
Next
What’s next to die? Mobile phones? Now, this may be too much! We are making more mobile phones than anybody ever imagined! But, we are also making multimedia computers ... so you never know ;-)
posted by Ari Jaaksi at 12:17 PM
54 Comments:
You may be right that the mobile internet is largely dead. However, I do think many people will continue using e.g. Opera Mini type of ways of making the full web more palatable on a small device screen. As great as Nokia's new web browser on S60 is, I frankly don't find the experience completely satisfying.
As for the death of the mobile phone.. I think the rumors are premature - just look which phones Nokia sells the most in volume terms. Heck, 1100 was for a long time the most popular Nokia in Sweden for example.
-Viipottaja
http://mobile-wireless.blogspot.com/2007/05/my-comment-on-mobile-internet-is-dead.html
I think mobile web is not dead....I simply think it never existed!!! I actually never saw it that way...."mobile web"...I just always thought there is just one internet....and mobile phones would able to access it....
WAP was just a wannabe a Internet...that's why it failed
...in a way mobile widgets are a perfect representation of a successful way of going on the Internet in a mobile way. But stil....going on the ONE and ONLY internet
what do you think?
http://mobile-wireless.blogspot.com/2007/05/my-comment-on-mobile-internet-is-dead.html
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Funny you should say that so soon after someone at Microsoft (some guy named Gates I think) said just the opposite (or seemingly so).
Am I the only person in the world that has difficulty concentrating for long periods of time on a 2-inch screen? Or a 3x4 inch screen for that matter.
Where is Goldylocks when you need her? No, I don't want something I have to use in conjunction with a magnifying glass, and no, I don't want something that takes up a whole wall in my living room. Whatever happened to "just right"?
I think this is all about consumerism. Microsoft wants to perpetuate the myth that everything will be on a cell phone. Why? Because they need something to add to their bottom line, where Windows is already about a successful as it will ever be. Meanwhile the old-guard electronics firms in Japan, China and so forth know we are all going to be replacing our old TVs sometime in the next few years and they need to sell the concept of "bigger is always better".
Nobody here is paying that much attention to what consumers actually want, what they are paying attention to is what they can brainwash consumers into wanting in the near future.
Companies can raise a lot of cash of course by selling things that people don't actually want. They question is can they use that cash to build "mindshare" to keep those customers loyal to the brand, or will they squander mindshare for short term gain that only boosts stock prices long enough for the executives to bail out?
The N800 is about as small a screen as I'd ever want to use for Internet access. I do check e-mail on my cell phone though using a specific application for just that purpose. In both cases those are temporary situations where I'd rather wait until I get back home to do any responding, etc.
All that to say: yeah, I think you're right.
So Ari, the way I see your view is that in the future we'll see a PC class operating system (comparable with today's Intel PCs) in mobile devices too, be it Linux or Windows? Did I get it right?
If you had to make a guess, as personal opinion, how long would you estimate it to take until hardware (e.g. power saving issues) and Linux are mature enough for mobile phones? Will we need Symbian or other "mobile OS" at all nowhere else but the 'simplest' devices?
Yes and no. The Mobile Internet may be dead (or, as somebody else wrote above, may have never existed) when you think of it as some kind of a parallel universe that exists in addition to the "desktop-internet". (This was the basic idea back in the WAP-days.)
There's this one part in you post I disagree with: "Web pages and services are tailored to small screens and people expect that to create the mobile internet. It won’t." It will!
The key point is that "one web" means there's one content, not necessarily one screen layout for all.
The Mobile Internet is not dead in terms of mobile devices and their special needs: You might be right that todays mobile phones or PDAs will eventually have capabilities similiar to those of a desktop PC. In fact, my Nokia 770 is more powerful than the old desktop PC I keep for testing purposes. Still, they are meant to be *mobile*, which in most cases means consumers want them to be small. Even more important, new, even smaller online-devices may come up in the future.
Given the restricted display and input capabilities *and* the increasing popularity of these mobile devices, I firmly believe it is the duty of web authors to do exactly what you seem to dismiss: tailor web pages for small screens. This must not mean they'll have two distinct versions content-wise - that would be the WAP-way to go.
It should mean that you care about accessibility in general, check that your markup is valid, have a look at how your site looks on a text-only browser and on a cell phone. It should be readable and people should at least be able to access all menus.
You can, of course, go a step further, check http-headers and serve flash-enabled, heavy-weight layouts to user agent A and pure text-centric layouts to user agent B. I did this a while ago when I had the luck that the content was available in an inhouse XML format so that I could simply write two XSLT-variations to bring it to XHTML.
So, yes, I believe authors should tailor web pages to mobile devices.
its not that its dead, its that it have to work in a different way then the web in general.
as in, while the web can reach out to just about any place, most people want their phone to have local services.
kinda like what yahoo is going with their one search (going into opera mini btw), where the system presents you with local search results when searching using a mobile device.
basically stuff have to become starter, more context sensitive. if one does a price search on a mobile phone you could be presented with a sorted list of local shops first, then maybe web shops and so on.
as in, the mobile web should be a extension of the web in general, not a replacement or similar.
and thats the problem with the mobile industry as a whole. they kinda fail to see that their products will just be another way to access the internet, not a system that exist alongside the internet.
but it seems that at least some of the industry is waking up to this.
so yes, the mobile web as a specialist service is dead. but that does not mean that web on mobile devices are dead. just look at the success of opera mini...
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Ari,
I have blogged and replied to your arguments here.
Mobile browsing is browsing internet with latest S60/WinMobile/etc. browser. Thats allready happening with the latest web browsers in mobile devices.
However dedicated applications for specific usergroups (advanced & corporate) with tailored functionality will likely prosper in future no matter whats the OS. Its true that it does not make sense on re-writing something to have it running a phone or any device.
Device base and carrier environments are so fragmented that browsing regular webpages with a majority of devices will take some time. Advanced markets are shifting to it starting 2007. It will likely take several years for users in wide scale discover browsing on a mobile device.
I think turn.self.off sort of crystallized the whole thing: PC + HTTP/Internet => World Wide Web, Mobile + HTTP/Internet => Local Area Web?
Good Stuff!!
Having followed the real Mobile computing arena since 2000, yes before UMPC came across to get the whole concept noticed in main PC arena, and having followed it ever since. Let me try and take a look in to the future with some concepts.
O and if you are interested in mobile computing in any level you should subscribe to UMPC portal RSS, that's where you will find all the information you will ever need to follow - And no, that's not mine.
For example relating to this article about linux going mobile mainstream, take a look at this post:http://www.umpcportal.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=597
Anyhow - I started my PC life with Commondore 64 for few years, took few years break and then enter the Apple, and have been ever since, just because of Steve's magic.
However in business I have never believed it to beat Microsoft and yes that's the same way I believe in Linux. So how does this all relate to topic above.
Well my vison for 10-15 years about mobile device(maybe we can call it smartphone for now) is that IT WILL HAVE FULL WINDOWS inside. It will have also other light OS as well.
So in "phone" mode it will use this light OS with Microsoft side show type of solution to access all internal data as well.
It will have several docking options, like "empty" laptop with internal dock, with extra battery, keyboard etc.
It will have desktop dock similar that OQO and other UMPC's are being docked now. (come to think of it, if it is the sice of a phone, it can actually have wireless "dock" and act as a mouse as well)
For mobile use it will have rollable screen and/or tiny projector...
Content can be recorded and stored while mobile and projected/broadcasted to you TV.
Sounds too much? Yes that how you should feel about something 15 years from now. However all of the above technologies and solutions could be done today, but to limitations/issues today are size, cost, batterylife, heat and networks - all that are expected to keep developing towards future allowing more to be fitted in one "brick" of device.
What's great? You have everything with you all the time. So no SYNC newer ever again.
What's not so great? You have everything with you all the time. Dont want to loose it...
But hey that's why in the future we will have continious mobile backup to some service provider for all our content!
Can you or cant you wait?
--- Sadly or not this has HUGE potential to Microsoft, since 95% will want full operating system, not some trimmed down of "copy" of an operating system (and that being said by Apple guy)
PS. Remember when thinking of potential iPhone user, that iPhone is not a smartphone but an iPod with phone and browser functions. It's easier to digest ;)
hmm, a device that holds two os's. yes, i have thought of that. should work even better now that virtualization is becoming more and more available.
another thing is the number of services that have a web gui. say you upload your images to fliker the moment they are taken, get your mail from gmail or similar. why have it stored on the local device when it can be stored online?
That comes as no surprise: it had no future to begin with. I should know, I worked for Wapit, back then.
This being said, developers still try to cram tons of useless bells ans whistles into handsets, all while neglecting obvious features that would actually be useful to average people.
All handset manufacturers are equally guilty at this bells and whistles game. There's a good reason while I hunt down used Nokia 3210 handsets: it's the last usable mobile phone I've ever seen on the market.
Upcoming UMPCs don't need "second lighter os" for phone functions..
Side Show it self can do all that.
So vista umpcs can/will bring all that faster than u may think...
... and the power off Intels new platforms and asian manufacturing will be hard to beat.
Mobile internet isn't dead....worlds webmaster just haven't woken up yet! We believe that it's the webmasters responsibility to make traditional webpages visible on mobile devices, without accessing specific URL's for mobile (like .../pda).
I too worked on WAP browser with Ari (hi Ari! :) and I have to disagree a little. I too used to believe the "mobile web" would become unnecessary. But as a heavy user of our Web Browser for S60, I've found myself preferring mobile-friendly versions for my frequently-used content. mobile.wundergound.com is perfect for quickly checking the weather, compared to the full www.wunderground.com. . mobileapp.espn.go.com is so much faster for getting the baseball standings than www.espn.com. Etc. But for exploring new pages, the full view is really nice.
I believe there will be convergence in about 6-8 years when a huge percentage of web traffic is from full browsers on small screens. Then site developers will learn the tricks to make pages flow better on both big and small screens, so there will be less need for separate versions. Google News text version is a great example of a site that looks good on either size screen.
Google has implemented our recommendations very nicely: when it recognizes a mobile web browser it shows links at the bottom to switch between Classic and Mobile. And best of all, it sets a cookie to remember, so google.com shows up as you last left it.
I do believe that almost everyone will have the full web in their pocket by 2015, and in developed countries probably sooner. But it will never fully match the big-screen experience, and that's ok. Developers will adapt when there's sufficient demand, and things will "just fit" most of the time.
Mobile Software will survive for a long time. It is now and will be driven by mobile consumer demand. Mobile device consumers demand more fashionable phones with smaller footprints and more features and expect to have a long battery life. Looking back when I worked on WAP I remember watching Microsoft trying desperately to quickly enter this mobile market by taking Windows morphing it into Windows CE and then Windows Mobile.
You cannot do that and be successful in delivering software that is power consumption aware. Windows Mobile today is starting to get better because Microsoft rewrote its underlying OS and applications. Mobile device manufacturers and Symbian started by developing software that is power consumption aware from the OS to the applications.
Then there is convergence. Converging mobile aware applications with today’s desktop applications will continue. Yes I recall back in the WAP days we talked about people getting messages on their mobile based on their location alerting them of a sale while they are visiting a shopping center among many other applications. Converging location based services with Mobile software and giving the user the best user experience is still a challenge.
Finally there is the user experience. Google and MS created “mobile”
applications to allow the user to easily connect to their MAP services. They did it to free the user from using a web browser on a mobile device to get to their Internet based map application. With one click the user gets to load the application. Mobile applications have to serve the mass market and should be designed for ease of use on a small device.
Until hardware catches up and new technologies are developed such as longer lasting batteries Mobile Software will be rule!
-Raouf
Ari I agree with you in my post about the mobile web.
However, that sadly doesn't stop people from making the same mistakes all over again.
Google mobile search for the Mobile Web(beta) for example. :(
Ari
It sounds lke you're coming round to the idea of an X86-based product. Wonderful becuase the RISC-based experience is like the WAP experience - Not complete.
I like the idea they your guys are also contributing to the Ubuntu x86 developement. Leads me to believe that Nokia might be realising that developing Internet apps on RISC is always a one-step-behind challenge.
With Intel working to reduce the impact of CPUs on battery life introduced the possibility of moving many devices onto the x86 platform where developemnt can be cheaper, quicker and more complete.
Looking forward to your next i86-based MIDLinux tablet!!!!
Steve. UMPCPortal.com
I just got a data plan on my mobile. I pretty much do not need my computer anymore since I do so much with my mobile phone. The neatest thing is that I can even watch naughty movies:) It is pretty neat, it's called Mobile TV. All I do is point my phone to sexoncell.com and they have adult mobile movies in different formats like 3gp movies, symbian, pda or whatever. If you have any other cool sites, please let me know! This one, though, even has a free daily mobile movie.
Nokia are unlikely to ever ship an x86 tablet unless they start shipping x86 phones - Nokia will always use the same hardware in their tablets that they use in their mass market phones due to the volume prices they can get on their phone components and the superior battery life and integration.
x86 isn't going to rule the world just yet Chippy... and unless Intel can get x86 power consumption down to miliwatts or better, it ain't going to happen period.
Chippy, you seem to have a chip (excuse the pun) on your shoulder about RISC which suggests that you are now a fully paid up Intel shill. Is it any suprise your "UMPC" site is now exclusively for the promotion of the Intel platform? RISC vs x86 is a moot point for Linux which supports both natively. It's only the closed source software houses such as Adobe that can't/won't release their software for Linux on non-x86 platforms - they are the problem. Were you told to write about the other RISC development "problems" by Intel by any chance?
Yes, but Google could do ''multimedia computer'' as well in partnership with some handsetmaker who is clever making it OS agnostic and then put Google IU ( mobile top ).
Think along the same line as you do with Maemo and Intel's Mobile Internet Device...
Mobile OS is dead :)
I have never read such total and utter twaddle in my entire life...Wake up and smell the coffee you lot.
The mobile internet is booming and more and more people/ brands etc are waking upto it. Data charges have been the largest obstacle to overcome but pressure on the networks has started to pay off and we are now seeing all you can eat deals and a willingness to allow browsers off portal. Japan and South Korea are leading the way and have enjoyed low cost mobile surfing for some years, and to boot more than half of their mobiles are 3G. Both these countries have seen the majority of internet users migrate from the PC to the mobile. Japan is also reporting a decline in PC sales as of last year. The fixed internet...or immobile internet as we in the industry like to call it is being ls much less healthy as it relies on Gambling and Adult content to generate it's revenues. The mobile internet no longer needs these industries to sustain it. Come on you lot....Coffee time....WAAAAAAAAAKE UP!!
Aitch B
and another thing....
If the small screen is such a problem.....tell me why Playstation have made a portable version?
Video gaming already generates 50% more revenue on Mobile than the immobile. Music sold on mobile is 8 times larger than all music sold online..including itunes.
Time to find a blog with some useful information on it...this is worse than listening to Brian on big brother....ug ug ug...
Aitch B
The largest problem with the mobile internet is that mobile operators still insist on maintaining their "walled gardens". The mobile operators that claim to have dropped the walled garden strategy have simply added a google searchbox, but that again do not give the user other than advertisements. The mobile Tribes portals Tribes portal and Tribes GlobalEN from Alatto is open mobile portals aimed at giving the users what they want.
Thanks Ari! Now that I know there is someone at Nokia thinking sensibly, I might actually consider buying the n810.
It just bugs me why you guys didn't figure it out 10 years ago. Why you didn't see the fact that there is not going to be any mobile specific crippled internet. To me, it was always obvious. People want the real thing. Period. Better late than never, though. :-)
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Many person's face the same problem with internet in their mobile. I too have faced the same problem a day but could not find out the solution for this problem
I remember my very old Nokia Mobile Phone, I also thought that i could browse internet from a black and white LCD screen. But it didnt work, technology work so fast. and in just a matter of months everything is different.
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This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are unanimous and
needs to be appreciated by everyone.I think mobile web is not dead....I simply think it never existed!!! I actually never saw it that way...."mobile web"...I just always thought there is just one internet....and mobile phones would able to access it.
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Mobile internet is not dead but it evolved to something better. What happened was 3G and Wifi connections made WAP almost obsolete.
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